John W. Smith
Is Islam a growth religion? Yes, but a qualified yes.
The Washington-based Pew Forum on Religion & Public Life has just completed a comprehensive survey, "The Future of Global Muslim Population," released in a conference call in which I was an invited participant. The future of other world religions, including Christianity, will be studied subsequently.
The Muslim population is expected to increase by about 35 percent in the next 20 years, from 1.6 billion in 2010 to 2.2 billion in 2030. That's growth. So is the projection that it will increase at twice the rate of the non-Muslim population: 1.5 percent annually compared with 0.7 percent.
Muslims will make up 26.4 percent of the population in 2030 vs. 23.4 percent now. In the United States, the Muslim population will more than double in 20 years.
On the other hand, world Muslim population is expected to grow at a slower pace than in the last two decades, when it was at 2.2 percent annually. U.S. Muslims will still be a very distinct minority at less than 2 percent. And some people's fears that Europe will be overrun by Muslims won't come to pass.
In Europe, the Muslim population is expected to grow from 44.1 million to 58.2 million in 20 years. They will compose 10.3 percent of the population of France (up from 7.5 percent) and 8.2 percent of the United Kingdom (up from 5.7 percent).
But a leveling off is expected as immigrants have fewer children than in their home countries.
"We're very far from Eurabia," said Alan Cooperman, Pew Forum executive director. "They're a visible minority which seems more populous."
Some tidbits in the report:
By 2030 Pakistan will replace Indonesia as the country with the most Muslims.
Sunni Muslims will widen their lead over Shiites, due largely to the low fertility rate in Iran, where most of the Shiites live.
There are 49 countries where Muslims are a majority of the population. In the eight countries where girls receive the least schooling, the average fertility rate is 5.0 children per woman; in the nine where they receive the most schooling, it's 2.3.
Muslims make up only 2 percent of the population of China, but because it's so big, China will have the 19th largest population of Muslims in 2030.
Seventeen of the 20 Middle East-North Africa countries will be more than 75 percent Muslim in 2030; exceptions are Israel, Lebanon and Sudan (as now demarcated). Israel will be 23.2 percent Muslim, up from 17.7.
Muslims composed 68.5 percent of immigrants to France in 2010 (66,000), primarily from North Africa.
Next week: Muslim growth in the Americas.
Contact John W. Smith: 610-371-5007 or jsmith@readingeagle.com.
February 05, 2011, Reading Eagle
